Navigating Permanent Volatility test

India's business leaders face a paradox. The country's structural growth story remains intact — strong domestic demand, a rising consumer class, and a policy environment broadly supportive of investment. Yet the path to capturing that growth has rarely been more complex. Commodity prices, trade policy, artificial intelligence, and inflationary pressures are reshaping competitive dynamics across every sector, often faster than annual planning cycles can accommodate. The question is no longer whether to adapt, but how quickly and on how many fronts at once.

The Kanvic CEO Agenda for this quarter — drawing on earnings calls of over 200 companies across 25 sectors — surfaces five themes that are defining how India Inc.'s leaders are responding: commodity volatility emerging as a near-universal boardroom concern; AI moving decisively from pilot to production; trade and geopolitical strategy being fundamentally recalibrated; premiumisation being deployed as a margin defence; and inflation returning to the strategic conversation after a period of relative calm.

Taken together, these themes point to a fundamental shift in how India Inc.'s leaders are thinking about growth — less as a function of volume alone, and more as an exercise in resilience, adaptability, and strategic foresight.

Commodity Volatility: A near-universal boardroom concern

If there is a single thread that connects the boardrooms of India Inc. this quarter, it is commodity price volatility. Our keyword analysis shows that commodity-related mentions have surged 32% quarter-on-quarter, making it the fastest-rising topic on the CEO agenda after inflation.

Moreover, it is no longer confined to the obvious suspects—oil, gas, and metals. The concern has permeated sectors as diverse as FMCG, consumer durables, construction, and chemicals.

Within sectors, commodity price volatility is the single most discussed keyword in oil and gas (49% of all mentions), FMCG (15%), construction (15%), chemicals (9%), and metals and mining (11%). This is not a cyclical blip but a structural feature of the operating environment.

In the metals sector, management teams describe how “stainless steel demand in India is rising, driven by economic growth and infrastructure expansion,” yet margin predictability remains elusive as input costs swing sharply. In the FMCG space, leaders note that fluctuations in key commodities like soya, palm, wheat, and sunflower oil are not just affecting costs—they are actively “influencing consumer choices and margin dynamics.” The story in consumer durables is equally telling. As one electrical goods management team observed, sharp swings in copper prices are “directly impacting gross margins,” necessitating agile cost management and pricing adjustments.

Companies across the board are responding by renegotiating procurement contracts, building flexibility into pricing models, and investing in hedging mechanisms. For sectors like building materials and industrial products, the ability to manage commodity exposure is emerging as a competitive differentiator. At the same time, this volatility is reshaping strategic thinking. Firms in the energy and materials space are accelerating investments in renewable energy and alternative fuels—not merely as a sustainability play, but as a hedge against the unpredictability of fossil fuel and raw material prices.

AI Moves from Boardroom Buzzword to Operational Reality

AI and machine learning mentions have grown 12% quarter-on-quarter, but the real story lies in the changing character of the conversation. A year ago, AI featured primarily in the earnings calls of IT services companies. This quarter, it has entered the lexicon of building materials, healthcare, and industrial products for the first time. Financial services companies have seen a 400% jump in AI mentions; retail, a 240% surge.

AI is now moving from aspiration to application. As one media and entertainment leader put it, “now with Generative AI, we finally have found a very effective tool.” In the cement and building materials sector, companies are deploying AI-enabled central control systems to optimise network operations. In logistics businesses, “agentic AI” is being used to automate documentation and enhance operational efficiency. In retail, AI initiatives are now among the top three keywords, alongside market growth and consumer confidence.

India Inc.’s leadership no longer considers AI readiness as optional. Companies that delay investment in AI capabilities—whether in demand forecasting, supply chain optimisation, or customer engagement—risk falling behind competitors who are already realising tangible efficiency gains.

Tariffs, Trade Deals and Supply Chains: The New Strategic Calculus

Trade policy and geopolitical risk have become permanent features of the CEO agenda. While trade policy mentions remain steady (+1% QoQ), the underlying conversation has become more nuanced and sector-specific. In textiles and apparel, tariff impacts and trade agreements are the top keywords, reflecting the sector’s acute sensitivity to shifts in global trade flows. In automotive and industrial products, supply chain challenges and import restrictions are driving a reassessment of sourcing and localisation strategies.

The European market, in particular, presents a genuinely mixed picture. On one hand, softening European consumer demand and weak macroeconomic conditions are creating headwinds for Indian companies with significant B2C or automotive export exposure. On the other hand, the contraction of European industrial capacity in sectors like specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticals is creating supply gaps that Indian companies are actively moving to fill. As one chemicals company observed, while European competitors are retreating or reducing capacity, Indian firms see a window to capture market share and strengthen customer relationships. Separately, the phased implementation of India-EU trade agreements is opening new export pathways in textiles, specialty products, and building materials, with one management team describing the impact as creating “immediate and ongoing opportunities to increase exports and margins.”

The strategic read is that geopolitical risk demands continuous scenario planning, agile supply chain management, and proactive engagement with trade policy developments. Companies that build these capabilities into their strategic planning process will navigate uncertainty far more effectively than those that react after the fact.

Premiumisation as Margin Defence: A Cross-Sector Playbook

Consumer behaviour mentions remain robust (+2% QoQ), but the more telling signal lies in that premiumisation trend has emerged as a consistent theme across sectors. From FMCG and paints to cement and consumer durables, India Inc.’s leaders are betting on premium products as the primary lever for margin expansion and brand differentiation.

In building materials, the shift toward higher-performance, value-added products—aided by regulatory changes and evolving consumer preferences—is creating new pricing power. In FMCG, the rapid growth of quick commerce and digital channels is accelerating the premiumisation trend, as these platforms disproportionately attract higher-value consumers. In the decorative paints segment, the drive toward premium offerings is being deployed as a defence against intensifying price competition from new entrants. In the electrical goods space, management teams report that the focus on premium products, particularly energy-efficient offerings, is “driving revenue growth and margin resilience.”

Leading companies understand that the key to success lies in understanding that premiumisation is not simply about charging more—it is about delivering measurably superior value. Companies that invest in product innovation, channel-specific strategies, and brand elevation will capture the margin benefits; those that pursue premiumisation without a genuine value proposition risk alienating consumers in an increasingly discerning market.

Inflation: Return to the Conversation

Perhaps the most notable signal in our quantitative analysis is the 45% quarter-on-quarter jump in inflation-related mentions—the sharpest rise of any theme on the CEO agenda. While inflation had receded from peak levels in earlier quarters, its return to the boardroom conversation suggests that cost pressures are far from resolved. Moreover, the increasing risk to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East point towards more pain in the coming quarters.

The resurgence is broad-based: As one industrial products leader observed, “while inflation moderated and rural demand is showing early signs of recovery,” the underlying cost environment remains challenging. In the dairy and food sector, management teams flag that elevated input prices are expected to persist, “putting pressure on input costs and necessitating proactive supplier management and cost pass-through mechanisms.” FMCG companies are flagging raw material and packaging cost increases and building materials firms are reporting regional price inflation. In sectors like financial services, the conversation is about the downstream effects—consumer credit quality, discretionary spending, and the pace of economic recovery.

For India Inc.’s leadership, the return of inflation to the strategic conversation demands a dual response. In the near term, companies will need to sharpen their cost management disciplines, optimise product mix, and exercise pricing agility. Over the medium term, the most resilient firms will be those that have built structural cost advantages—through energy transition investments, supply chain localisation, and operational efficiency programmes—that insulate them from the next inflationary cycle.

The Road Ahead: Resilience as the New Growth Strategy

The CEO agenda in Q4 FY2026 tells a story of an India Inc. that is maturing in its approach navigating permanent volatility. The themes dominating the earnings call conversation—commodity volatility, AI adoption, geopolitical risk, premiumisation, and inflation—are not new in isolation. What is new is the degree to which they are being discussed simultaneously, and the sophistication with which India’s business leaders are responding to them.

The companies that will emerge strongest from this environment are those that treat these forces not as individual challenges to be managed in silos, but as interconnected dimensions of a single strategic question: how to build a business that grows sustainably in a world of permanent volatility. This requires cross-functional coordination, investment in digital and AI capabilities, proactive engagement with regulatory and trade developments, and a relentless focus on value creation.

About the authors

Deepak Sharma is Cofounder and Director at Kanvic Consulting, where Ricardo Viegas is an Associate Consultant.